Friday, March 11, 2011

Econ Discussion #5 - Japan recovery

As one of the largest natural disastors hits Japan, the economic impact will be signigicat.  Find information on your own that details the economic impact.  Look at your industry and try to determine the impact to your industry.  Post comments about economic impact to Japan and any foreign markets.  See if you can find something on Klamath County impact.

The links below are a good start.  The first link is just video footage of the actual earthquake.  The second link is a website that has several articles on economic impact.  Most numbers will change drastically over the next few weeks.


Earthquake footage 

Collection of Economic impact articles

26 comments:

  1. 1ST!!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12710555

    ~150 Billion USD lost already. (6%)

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  2. The earth quake in Japan is a terrible tragety that will undoutedly effect the country's economic position. Although Japan has suffered terrible losses the economic down turn will no dout be temporary and the country will retern to its precious economic state. At the forfront of Japan's economic problems is the nuclear power industry. Due to the loss of two major plants and and the dout that may rise in the existing plants the nuclear power industry may very well suffer temporaraly.

    The united states cattle industry will be affected very little to not at all due to the Japaneze earth quake. This is the case because the majoraty of the cattle consumed by the United States are raised in the United States. The Japaneze cattle industry will suffer temporaraly but will not be hit hard due to the fact the largest contributing factor to the raising of cattle is land mass.
    peace zach

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  3. Cocoa is not produced in Japan in bulk. Therfore it is not effecting cocoa in a dramatic way. There is much consumption of cocoa in japan but that will not deminish much as the cocoa is used to make chocolate primarly in European countries and in the united states.

    The Tsunami is effecting the nuclear power industry in Japan and has caused many of the stock to lower because of the fear of what will happen. Japan has had alot of dramatic destruction happen to their country. I think they will be effected but will eventually rise to gain there economic power again.

    Ted

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  4. Here is a website a found showing great satellite pictures of Japan before and after the earthquake/tsunami.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/13/world/asia/satellite-photos-japan-before-and-after-tsunami.html

    What I found on the Impact on the economy. Citigroup expects 5-10 trillion yen in damage to housing and infrastructure, while Barclays Capital estimates economic losses of 15 trillion yen ($183.7 billion) or 3 percent of Japan's GDP.

    UBS expects Japan's economy to grow 1.4 percent this year, compared with its previous forecast of 1.5 percent expansion. But it upgraded its growth forecast for 2012 to 2.5 percent, up from the previous estimate of 2.1 percent.

    Goldman Sachs expects total economic losses is likely to hit 16 trillion yen, while it expects real GDP to decline by 0.5-2 percent in the second quarter.

    ($1=81.66 Yen)

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  5. It is horrible enough to think about the disastrous effects that the tsumani has had on the people of Japan personally as shown in thsi footage, but what about the everlasting effects on it's economy? 4-6% of Japans gross domestic product is produced on the shoreline that has now been put on hold. Not only is this region (that has been virtually wiped out) Japans largest fishing and agrucultural industry, but it contains much of it's manufacturing as well. This disaster has also stopped 10% of Japans caol and nuclear sources of power generation. There's no telling how long it will take Japan to get back on it's feet, but it is certain that the disasterous effects of the tsumani are going to leave Japan in a deep ditch economically. Though the iron ore industry is not been noticably effected by any of these factors as of yet.

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  6. A helpful website I found:

    http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/03/16/Japan-Crisis-Experts-Weigh-Economic-Impact.aspx

    It sounds like the crisis won't have a long term effect on the U.S., although with all the nuclear problems right now, the fate of nuclear power doesn't look great. The devastation in Japan is horrific; the earthquake and tsunami alone caused trillions of yen in damage, but with the nuclear crisis, the damage could be even worse.
    Japan's economy will take a downfall, as they have $180 billion in damage, which is 3% of their GDP. Since Japan was already facing a huge national debt, this disaster is truly devastating for their economy and their people.
    So far the aluminum industry has not been noticably effected, as Japan isn't a leading producer in the industry.

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  7. The tsunami in Japan will make it difficult for Japan to recover from their already large debt. Not only did the tsunami and earthquake cause billions of dollars in damage, it also shut down many important factories such as Honda and Sony. My industry may be affected since both Boeing and Airbus recieve parts from companies from around the world, but I don't think production will decrease that much. The companies that will be hit the hardest in the US are the companies that rely on Japanese made electronics for the bulk of their product. Klamath Falls could be affected due to the temporary decrease in demand for oil, but I don't think gas prices will decrease dramatically.

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  8. I think the economic impact to Japan will be terrible. Inflation will be kicking in soon since the central bank dumbed billions of Yen into the economy and the deficit is already 215% of their GDP. However for the rest of the world the impact is difficult to measure. The world will continue in most aspects just as it did before. However, some japanese companies will be forced to outsource labor due to decreased labor availability in Japan. This will probably aid China primarily. The US stands to gain if they are able to sell Japan staple foods. Japan had a large agricultural area taken out so food shortages will be prevalent for staple foods. This food shortage combined with massive frost damage in california and Mexico could raise issues with inflation world wide, triggering the feared economic collapse.
    On the industry side Oil is rising after a long fall to $90 ish per barrel. However, I see oil peaking and probably staying at a comfortable price of around $100 :O and gas continuing to rise. Japan's gasoline necessities will increase due to construction equipment. With refineries and reserves destroyed Japan will have to import refined products. Most refineries are working near capacity, so shortages could cause massive increases in price.

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  9. It is imperative to delve in the implications this natural calamity on the steel market. The tremors of quake will certainly be felt in corners of global steel market.

    Japan being a major importer of iron ore, coke and scrap will be shut out for immediate shipments. As most of the ports will remain inoperative there is likely hood of shortfall in demand leading to price drop in the spot iron ore, scrap and coke prices. Although the Q2 contractual prices for iron ore and coke has just been finalized in Japan the execution of these contractual obligations will certainly be cause for concern. Iron ore prices already sulking on the Chinese drop in demand portends to depress further as Japanese demand will wane.

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  10. OK, so what's going to change is
    a) production on the region suffering from tsunami, earthquake and meltdown, since it's not operable for production at the moment;
    b) there is an energy deficit, so the budget for it should increase as they're buying power from Russia.

    The government will also have to use budget money to restore faclities on the coast.
    Major export companies should be OK, since there are lots of plants in the US and other countries, even though a couple of production centers have been damaged. My industry is palladium and it shouldn't change a lot, because Japan does not produce palladium (it does consume it for car industry, which should be fine as I said above).

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  11. The major tradegy of the Tsunami in japan has cause devestation. The nuclear enery has been a major problem since the tsunami, which has casue an effect on the food, which could intital outsorcing of producing food for japan. But major companies will lose revanue. McDonalds and Coca cola and loss in price of stocks. The automoblie industry will see a huge impact do to a lot of base part come from japan.
    Kirsten

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  12. The earthquake that struck Japan has caused a huge set back in the gaming industry. With the Tsunami causing a large power shortage in Japan a power conservation has been issued. Square Enix has decided to comply with this demand, even though they are not required to. But this means that servers for Final Fantasy are down. Square Enix says that they are not going to charge the users for this month, or any further months that the servers are down.
    -Luke K.

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  13. The diasater has high economic impacts in both Japan and globaly. The shut-downs and recovery process will hurt the Japanese government, especially with them already stuck in extraordinary debt. Immediate economic effects on Klamath are not obvious but Japan's perdicament will trickle down and affect us eventually. Oil is one example, as it's price changes. Along with that, there are Japanese companies that have relationships with Oregon and the businesses in Oregon. The economic impact of those companies affect the state as a whole.
    My industry has been effeted by the earthquake a lot. I have the auto industry. Many comanies including Toyota, Honda and Nisson have had to shut down plants in Japan. This did not hault production because they have many manufacturers globaly but is does slow production which will affect the market as a whole

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  14. The disaster will have substantial changes. The disaster destroyed the industrial work of Japan which will decrease the use of Platinum because it is used in computer screens and cars. But since Japan doesn't have any platinum mines it wouldn't effect the production of platinum.
    Joshua B

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  15. Japanese economy is taking damage as lots of resources and money are used to cope with the meltdown and city destruction: houses are to be rebuilt, compensations are to be paid, and I bet people expect help from the government. Transport system is literally ruined. Workforce is also reduced by at least 10k dead (17k missing). Tourism industry is suffering, of course, it will need time to recover. I don't see any dramatic worldwide effects yet (except for a few demonstrations against nuclear power), but Japan is sure taking a big hit.

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  16. Here is a link to a good article on the cost of consumer electronics. About 60% of all consumer electronics (Phones, TV's Cameras, Computers) components are built in Japan.

    http://adage.com/article/global-news/earthquake-tsunami-spark-concern-consumer-electronics/149529/

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  17. Doing Hotel and Lodging the industry won't be affected a lot. There will be less travel in Japan of course but overall my industry wont take a huge hit. While the Economy is going to hurt in all aspects This is an industry that won't hugely be affected. Japan of all will take the biggest hit.
    Peter

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  18. Obviously the education industry won't be hurt at all unless you consider damaged schools and educational materials in Japan. These will be added to a list things the Japanese government will have to fix and replace.

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  19. the earthquake not only shook the world but the economic world as well, the theater industry (if anything) will grow from this. new plays will be dedicated to this tragedy and life will continue on for this industry.

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  20. This will definetly impact insurance. As people see the destruction in Japan, and hear of the predicted tsunami that is due for the west coast, we may see an increase in demand. Insurance companies will prosper from this. Foreign companies are impacted a lot. From Sony and its inability to get parts to the nuclear plants that reside in America. Klamath County is impacted by the slight reprieve of gas prices since Japan's consumption of it has lessened.

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  21. The tsunami made enough damage as it is, but Japan is already in debt. Thousands lost their lives and speaking economically, thousands of employees were lost. It will take a lot of work to build Japan back to what it used to be, and it will take a very long time. Japan is a very high tech country, and I believe that they will be able to build themselves up better than other countries that have been hit by natural disasters. Because of the damage their economy could have a rough time for awhile. Land will most likely not be suited for growing and sort of food. When we think about exports from Japan, we think Toyota and electronics. These things may still be the same, but it will take awhile for them to get back on their feet.

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  22. With the disasters in Japan of the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami topping 10 meters, the government estimates the material damage alone could top $300 billion, making it by far the world's costliest natural disaster.
    Japan's economic downturn did not affect my industry of frozen concentrated orange juice, seiing how it is not a major producer in the industry.

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  23. The earthquake is costing millions of dollars in damage, thousands of lives, and years of problems for present and future citizens to solve. Containing radiation from the nuclear plants (and preventing a nuclear disaster), rebuilding and repairing, search and rescue, and sheltering and feeding the homeless are the main things on Japan's agenda.

    The music industry has been effected by the earthquake as well. "Japan is a major reggae market, so Thursday's major earthquake and tsunami have sent aftershocks through the Jamaican music industry. While there will be negative implications for our music industry as a result of the magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, local artistes who frequent the country say they are more concerned about the loss of lives and property." http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110313/ent/ent1.html

    Artists are recording albums, touring, and putting on live shows and benefit concerts to aid those in Japan. This money is going to aid thousands on the road to recovery, and help the artists promote their bands and music to the public.

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  24. I have expressed this before: I don't particularly feel emotional during or in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. It may seem morbid, but I don't find value in grieving about a situation that has already happened. I would rather focus positive energy towards progress.

    With that said I offer a simple quote, "This too will pass." Does anyone remember Katrina? It's was doomsday (economicvally) in N'awlins for years, but things seem to be nearly back to normal, or better. Sure, Japan will be affected negatively for a while, but soon enough the nation will recoup and the international audience will move on to the next disaster.

    Further, perhaps more morbid, disaster (whether in form of tsunami or economic depression) allows the weakness in a system to be revamped. Economic downturn weeds out weak businesses, and similarily, a natural disaster removes the weaker of buildings etc. Morbidly thinking, Japan will region stronger and more savvy than ever.

    As for my industry, Tokyo Disneyland Resort closed for a few days due to building inspections and a crippled local transportation system and was reopened shortly after.

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  25. I agree a lot with Tay in some respect. As I am pretty late in replying to this post, it has already blown over. For a few weeks, Japan's tragedy was the hot topic to talk about. But now that it has left the news feed, it has also left our minds. In respect to my industry, obviously people aren't going to be traveling there for leisure as much. Although people are traveling there to help, but that's not really tourism.

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  26. I agree with Tay for the most part as well. However, the earthquake undoubtedly effected the world to a huge extent and is something that won't be forgotten. But let's not dwell on the bad here. On a good note, the earthquake did not effect my sugar industry because Japan in not a key player.

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